Survey results: March 2024*
| 2021 (факт) | 2022 (факт) | 2023 (факт/оценка) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в%дек.кдек. пред. года) | 8,4 | 11,9 | 7,4 | 5,2 (4,9) | 4,1 (4,0) | 4,0 (4,0) | |
| ИПЦ (%кпред. году, всреднем загод) | 6,7 | 13,8 | 5,9 | 6,9 (6,9) | 4,4 (4,3) | 4,0 (4,0) | |
| Ключевая ставка (в%годовых, всреднем загод, сучетом выходных дней) | 5,7 | 10,6 | 9,9 | 14,5 (13,9) | 9,4 (9,2) | 7,5 (7,4) | |
| ВВП (%, г/г) | 5,9 | -1,2 | 3,6 | 1,8 (1,6) | 1,5 (1,5) | 1,5 (1,5) | |
| Уровень безработицы (%, дек., безисключения сезонности) | 4,3 | 3,6 | 3,0 | 3,0 (3,0) | 3,1 (3,1) | 3,2 (3,2) | |
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г) | 11,5 | 14,1 | 14,1 (13,4) | 9,9 (9,5) | 7,0 (7,0) | 6,1 (6,1) | |
| Баланс консолидированного бюджета (%ВВПзасоответствующийгод) | 0,8 | -1,4 | -2,3 | -1,5 (-1,4) | -1,0 (-1,0) | -1,0 (-1,0) | |
| Экспорт товаров иуслуг** (млрд долл. СШАвгод) | 550 | 641 | 465 | 472 (482) | 489 (494) | 490 (494) | |
| Импорт товаров иуслуг** (млрд долл. СШАвгод) | 380 | 347 | 379 | 384 (385) | 397 (396) | 408 (410) | |
| Курс USD/RUB (руб.задолл., всреднем загод) | 73,7 | 67,4 | 85,2 | 91,2 (91,1) | 93,8 (93,0) | 95,0 (95,0) | |
| Цена нанефть марки Brent (долл. СШАзабаррель, всреднем загод) | 71 | 99 | 82 | 80 (80) | 78 (79) | 75 (75) | |
| Показатели, рассчитанные наоснове полученных ответов: | |||||||
| ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) | 100,0 | 98,8 | 102,4 | 104,2 (103,8) | 105,8 (105,4) | 107,3 (107,0) | |
| Реальная заработная плата*** (%, г/г) | 4,5 | 0,3 | 7,8 (7,1) | 2,8 (2,4) | 2,5 (2,3) | 2,0 (2,0) | |
| Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021г. = 100) | 100,0 | 100,3 | 108,1 (107,4) | 111,1 (110,0) | 113,9 (112,5) | 116,2 (114,8) | |
| Торговый баланс (млрд долл. СШАвгод) | 170 | 294 | 86 | 88 (97) | 91 (97) | 82 (84) | |
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (%годовых) | Медиана | 7,0 (7,0) | Уровень ключевой ставки, прикотором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает вдолгосрочном периоде инфляцию иинфляционные ожидания нацели иВВПнапотенциальном уровне. | ||||
| Центр. тенденция | (5,8-8,0) | ||||||
| Долгосрочный ростВВП (%, г/г) | Медиана | 1,5 (1,5) | Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциальногоВВПнагоризонте 2027— 2031годов. | ||||
| Центр. тенденция | (0,9-2,0) | ||||||
* Inparentheses aretheresults oftheFebruary 2024survey.
** In2023— theestimate.
*** Theresults arethemedian forecasts based onsurvey participants’ responses onthenominal wages andaverage fortheyear CPI.
Survey Dates: 7— 12March, 2024.
Calculation methodology: Thesurvey results arethemedian ofthe27forecasts ofeconomists from various organizations taking part inthesurvey.
Theranges ofanalysts’ forecasts forthenext years (seetheshaded areas inthecharts) have generally narrowed formost indicators. However, theranges forthekeyrate, unemployment rate, USD/RUB exchange rate, exports, imports, Brent oilprice aresignificantly widening bytheendoftheforecast period.
- Inflation: Analysts have revised their inflation forecast upwards to5.2% in2024 (+0.3 p.p. compared totheFebruary survey). Analysts expect that inflation will return tothetarget ofclose to4%in2025andremain atthis level furtheron.
- Keyrate: Analysts have raised thekeyrate forecast for2024 to14.5% perannum (+0.6 p.p.) onaverage. Theforecast for2025is9.4% perannum (+0.2 p.p.) onaverage. Analysts’ forecast fortheendoftheforecast horizon is7.5% perannum (+0.1 p.p.). Theneutral keyrate estimate isunchanged at7.0% perannum.
- GDP: Analysts have improved theGDPforecast for2024 to+1.8% (+0.2 p.p.). Theforecasts forthefollowing years andtheestimate ofthelong-term GDPgrowth rate areunchanged at+1.5% perannum. According toanalysts, theGDPchange in2026 tothe2021 level will be+7.3% (+7.0% according totheFebruary survey).
- Unemployment rate: Forecasts areunchanged. Analysts expect only aslight increase inunemployment to3.2% bytheendof2026.
- Nominal wages: Analysts have raised their forecast fornominal wages growth to9.9% (+0.4 p.p.) in2024, followed byadeceleration to7.0% in2025. Thegrowth forecast fortheendoftheforecast horizon is+6.1%. Calculations based onanalysts’ forecasts ofnominal wages andaverageCPIsuggest that real wages will increase by2.8% (+0.4 p.p.) in2024, by2.5% in2025andby2.0% in2026. Accordingly, bytheendoftheforecast horizon, real wages will be16.2% higher than in2021.
- Consolidated budget balance:Nosignificant changes. Analysts expectations arebased onagradual reduction oftheconsolidated budget deficit:to1.5%ofGDPin2024, to1.0% ofGDPin2025and2026.
- Exports ofgoods andservices: Analysts have revised somewhat downwards their forecasts over theentire forecast horizon: to$472 billion (-$10billion) for2024, to$489 billion (-$5billion) for2025, to$490 billion (-$4billion) for2026, which is11%lower than inexports in2021.
- Imports ofgoods andservices: Forecasts have barely changed: $384 billion (-$1billion) for2024, $397 billion (+$1billion) for2025, $408 billion (-$2billion) for2026, which is7%higher than imports in2021.
- USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts’ forecast for2024is91.2 rubles perdollar, 93.8 rubles perdollar for2025and95.0 rubles perdollar for2026 (revised by
0.1–0.9% compared totheFebruary survey). - Brent oilprice: Forecasts have barely changed. According toanalysts’ expectations, theaverage Brent oilprice in2024 will be$80perbarrel, andwill decrease to$78perbarrel in2025andto$75perbarrel in2026.
CPI
%, Dec. toDec. oftheprevious year
Keyrate
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%, yoy
Unemployment rate
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\r\n
{point.y:,.1f}{series.options.units}
\r\n
\r\n
●
\r\n
{series.name}:
\r\n
{point.y:,.1f}{series.options.units}
\r\n
{point.x}
","pointFormat":"\r\n
●
\r\n
{series.name}:
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{point.y:,.f}{series.options.units}
\r\n
* Note: theupper andlower boundaries ofthefilled area onthegraphs areequal tothemaximum andminimum forecast.
Thebrighter area inthecenter isthe10to90th percentile range.
Thenext survey will becarried outfrom 12to16April, 2024.
Survey participants
| Bloomberg Economics | Газпромбанк | НИФИ Минфина | Сбербанк ЦМИ | ЦМАКП |
| АКРА | ДОМ.РФ | Промсвязьбанк | Телеграм-канал MMI | Эксперт РА |
| Астра Управление активами | ИБСинара | Райффайзенбанк | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | ЮниКредит банк |
| Альфа Банк | ИКРЕГИОН | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал Моиинвестиции | |
| Банк ДОМ.РФ | ИНГБанк Евразия | Росбанк | ФИНАМ | |
| БКСМиринвестиций | ИНПРАН | Россельхозбанк | ФКОткрытие | |
| ВЭБ.РФ | Институт Гайдара | Сбербанк КИБ | «Центр развития» НИУВШЭ |
Additional materials
Survey calendar
Aggregated survey results
Questionnaire
Department responsible forpublication: Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 13.03.2024
