Central bank money printing and the mystery of soaring shares (2024)

Well, here's another in a similar vein she might like to ask when she next returns to matters financial. "How come the stock market is going up, when the economy keeps tanking?"

The textbook answer to this question is that stock prices don't reflect the world as it is, but as investors expect it to be a year or two from now. Markets are forward-looking indicators, not backward ones. There is also a large element of relief in today's ongoing rally. A year ago, the world economy seemed to be falling apart. Political deadlock threatened budgetary mayhem in the US, the euro appeared to be at death's door, and China looked destined for a hard landing.

None of these things happened. It was a narrow miss, but thanks largely to the actions of central bankers, the anticipated meteorite strike passed us by. Financially, at least, the world today is a less worrying place than it was.

Yet none of this fully explains the strength of the rebound, with the Dow back at a record high, the more representative S & P 500 very close to it, and the FTSE 100 not far off. For those who think of the FTSE 100 as more of a global index than a British one, and therefore somewhat divorced from the particular challenges of the domestic economy, it should be noted that the more UK orientated mid-cap FT 250 is also breaking new records.

How can this be, given the perma-gloom emanating from Westminster, the Bank of England and the media? Is it possible that David Cameron, who insisted yesterday that the Coalition's economic strategy is working if only we could show some patience, is actually right, and that sunlit pastures are at last in view?

It would certainly be nice to think so after five years of blood, sweat and tears, and I don't doubt that sentiment is a lot more positive than it was. Unfortunately, it's failing to filter through to the corporate world, where cash accumulation, not business expansion, continues to be the name of the game, at least as far as stagnant advanced economies are concerned.

It's a different story in fast growing emerging markets. To the extent that Western companies are investing beyond the bare minimum to keep things ticking over, this is where their money is heading.

In any case, chief executives are not yet anticipating the strong cyclical upturn which stock markets seem to be pointing to. If companies themselves don't think highly enough of our economic prospects to start investing, how come investors do? There are two inter-related explanations.

One concerns a major curiosity of the present downturn. To many, this has looked like a full-blown depression. In Britain, we've actually had a deeper and longer contraction than that of the 1930s. But it's not felt that way to companies, outside the banking sector at least. After a brief, post-Lehman's dip, largely caused by collapsing financial sector returns, corporate profits have soared (see the chart on US profits).

Earnings are at record levels, and corporate balance sheets have never been stronger. Corporate insolvency, especially of the big, household name variety, is comparatively rare, making this a very unusual downturn by past standards. Normally, during a prolonged credit squeeze, companies go out of business in their thousands. Others slash their dividends to stay afloat. But it's not happened this time on anywhere near the scale you'd expect for such a prolonged economic malaise.

Why? One reason is zero interest rates, allowing companies which, in a conventional recession, would have gone bust, to stay in business. At the same time, banks have been bailed out, so that bad debts have in effect been nationalised. Taxpayers rather than investors are being made to pay the price for past excesses. The insolvency problem has been transferred from the private to the public sector.

In this sense, action by policymakers has ensured that this time really is different. It's labour rather than capital which has been most damaged by the downturn. In sending stock prices to record highs, investors are only just beginning to catch up with this reality.

The other related explanation is central bank money printing. This may or may not have prevented a much deeper economic collapse, but it has certainly put a rocket under asset prices.

In Britain alone, the Bank of England has pumped £375bn of quantitative easing into the system. If it is right that the Government is about to re-write the Bank of England's remit so as to favour pursuit of growth over low inflation, we can expect plenty more where that came from.

Both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have been doing much the same, albeit via the banking system in the case of the ECB. Joining the party is the Bank of Japan, which promises to print yen without limit until finally it has succeeded in getting some inflation back into the economy.

All this new money has to go somewhere, and since it is not obviously doing much for the real economy, equities are increasingly the home of choice. As long as the central banks keep printing, equities will keep rising. Thus do central banks answer each successive bubble by blowing up another.

Actually, I wouldn't say that equities are yet a bubble. Valuations would need to move quite a bit higher for this to be the case. For the moment, they are still reasonably well supported by the surge in profits. But as with much else in this downturn, we don't yet know for sure what's really going on.

Is the upswing in stock markets a sign of a much wider return in confidence that will eventually find expression in the real economy, or is it a largely artificial phenomenon that will last only as long as the QE?

If this rally is to be sustained, then eventually the real economy is going to have to catch up with the stock market, but such are the distortions of central bank money printing that it could be some time before the stock market is made to catch up with a stubbornly resistant real economy.

In a lecture this week, Sushil Wadhwani, a former member of the British Monetary Policy Committee, made a very interesting observation. It used to be thought that higher inflation was quite bad for equities, yet in a zero interest rate world, Mr Wadhwani said, "it would be reasonable to expect a positive association".

Many companies have been able to push up prices even as wages and employment stagnate. Prices have proved "stickier" than wages. As we have seen, corporate margins have expanded accordingly.

Equities can thereby be seen as a relatively good hedge against central banks hell bent on maintaining nominal GDP growth through elevated inflation. It is not until you get to levels of inflation significantly above 5 per cent that it becomes significantly earnings destructive. None the less, the logic of the argument carries an obvious warning. Eventually it becomes socially and politically unacceptable for companies to keep expanding their profits at the expense of labour. The backlash is already beginning.

- What next for the stock market? See updates in our weekly money newsletter

Central bank money printing and the mystery of soaring shares (2024)

FAQs

What happens when the federal government prints more money? ›

Potential Consequences of Money Printing:

Inflation and Hyperinflation: An excessive influx of money can lead to too many dollars chasing too few goods and skyrocketing prices. Unchecked can lead to hyperinflation, where prices rise uncontrollably, making a country's currency practically worthless.

What is likely to happen if a central bank suddenly prints a large amount of new money? ›

Hyperinflation can occur in circ*mstances affecting the underlying production economy, in conjunction with a central bank printing excessive money. Hyperinflation can cause a surge in prices for essential goods—such as food and fuel—as demand outpaces supply.

Why are central banks losing money? ›

The loss was tied to a jump in interest expenses faced by the central bank amid a rate hike campaign aimed at cooling inflation. The Fed paid a mix of financial institutions $281.1 billion last year, versus $102.4 billion in 2022.

Who controls all the money in the world? ›

The central banks tend to control the quantity of money in circulation to achieve economic objectives and affect monetary policy.

Who does the U.S. owe money to? ›

The public includes foreign investors and foreign governments. These two groups account for 30 percent of the debt. Individual investors and banks represent 15 percent of the debt. The Federal Reserve is holding 12 percent of the treasuries issued.

Can the Fed take money out of the economy? ›

The Fed trades in securities, and every security has a price. Hence, if the Fed wants to take money out of circulation they "buy" dollars, by selling securities. At the market price there will by definition be people who are willing to give their money to the Fed in return for securities.

Why is the US printing so much money? ›

Consumer demand and trends in payment methods are not the only reasons the government continues to place print currency orders. Another reason is to replace money already in circulation that has been destroyed.

Can inflation happen without printing money? ›

The quantity theory believes that the value of money, and the resulting inflation, is caused by the supply and demand of the currency. There are situations where increases in the money supply do not cause inflation, and other economic conditions like hyperinflation or deflation may occur instead.

Why is printing more money bad? ›

One of the drastic and immediate outcomes of printing excessive amounts of money is inflation. When the supply of money surpasses the demand for goods and services in an economy, prices will begin to rise rapidly, and that is a problem. This erodes the purchasing power of individuals and undermines economic stability.

Why are so many banks in trouble? ›

Economic Factors: Higher interest rates also often lead to slower economic growth, meaning people are spending less money. Inflation, recessions, and housing market crashes can all cause banks to shut down. Regulation: The government provides many regulations that banks must follow, especially after the 2008 recession.

Are central banks causing inflation? ›

Central banks use monetary policy to manage economic fluctuations and achieve price stability, which means that inflation is low and stable. Central banks in many advanced economies set explicit inflation targets.

What happens when central banks lose money? ›

If the Fed were to incur losses, it would have no detrimental effect on its monetary policy tools, such as open market operations (OMOs) or setting the federal funds rate. The Fed would still be able to raise or lower interest rates or buy and sell securities on the open market in order to influence the economy.

Who owns most of the money in the US? ›

The top 20% of Americans owned 86% of the country's wealth and the bottom 80% of the population owned 14%. In 2011, financial inequality was greater than inequality in total wealth, with the top 1% of the population owning 43%, the next 19% of Americans owning 50%, and the bottom 80% owning 7%.

Who controls the most money in the US? ›

The top 1% of American earners now control more wealth than the nation's entire middle class, federal data show. More than one-quarter of all household wealth, 26.5%, belongs to Americans who earn enough money to rank in the top percentile by income, according to Federal Reserve statistics through mid-2023.

What stops banks from creating money? ›

Required reserves are to give the Federal Reserve control over the amount of lending or deposits that banks can create. In other words, required reserves help the Fed control credit and money creation. Banks cannot loan beyond their excess reserves.

What is the result of printing more money? ›

When the Federal Reserve increases the money supply, inflation may occur. More often than not, if the Fed is attempting to stimulate the economy by growing the money supply, prices will increase, the cost of goods will be unstable, and inflation will likely occur. Springer.

Why is the US government printing so much money? ›

Consumer demand and trends in payment methods are not the only reasons the government continues to place print currency orders. Another reason is to replace money already in circulation that has been destroyed.

Is there a limit to how much money the government can print? ›

The very short answer is yes, governments can print as much money as they want. However, they cannot do so without consequences such as inflation, currency instability, and economic decline.

Where does printed money go? ›

If the banknotes are not genuine, Federal Reserve Banks send them to the U.S. Secret Service. If they are genuine and still in good condition, the notes are sent to depository institutions to fill new orders for currency.

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Neely Ledner

Last Updated:

Views: 6559

Rating: 4.1 / 5 (42 voted)

Reviews: 89% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Neely Ledner

Birthday: 1998-06-09

Address: 443 Barrows Terrace, New Jodyberg, CO 57462-5329

Phone: +2433516856029

Job: Central Legal Facilitator

Hobby: Backpacking, Jogging, Magic, Driving, Macrame, Embroidery, Foraging

Introduction: My name is Neely Ledner, I am a bright, determined, beautiful, adventurous, adventurous, spotless, calm person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.