EUR/USD Forex Report | Technical Analysis | Updated for 12.21.2023 (2024)

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• December 21, 2023
• 7:40 pm
• Forex

The updated data for the EUR/USD Forex pair as of December 21, 2023, indicates new developments in its recent trends, correlation dynamics, and predictive trading ranges. This analysis aims to supply insights into the latest state of the EUR/USD in the Forex market, taking into account the new changes in its trading behavior.

Trading Performance Following US Close on 12.21.2023

• Percentage Changes:
  • Day-Over-Day Change: An increase of 0.60% from the previous day.
  • Week-Over-Week Change: A growth of 1.19% over the past week.
  • Month-Over-Month Change: A modest rise of 0.85% over the past month.
• Correlation and Strength:
  • Weekly Correlation vs. FGC Dollar Indicator (our proprietary US Dollar Indicator): A negative correlation at -0.8872, slightly less intense than previously reported.
  • Trading Condition: Remains ‘Neutral’.
• Key Support/Resistance Levels:
  • Lower Extreme: 1.0860
  • Lower Level: 1.0905
  • Mid-Level: 1.0951
  • Upper Level: 1.0996
  • Upper Extreme: 1.1042
• Predictive Trading Range Probabilities:
  • Upper Range (73.15% Chance): Less Than or Equal to 1.0979
  • Mid-Range (35.02% Chance): Less Than or Equal to 1.0933
  • Lower Range (13.02% Chance): Less Than or Equal to 1.0899

Analysis

• Positive Daily Movement: The increase in the day-over-day change is a bullish signal, indicating a short-term upward momentum.
• Sustained Growth Trend: Though modest, the week-over-week and month-over-month increases highlight a consistent upward trend for the Euro against the Dollar.
• Correlation Shift: The slight decrease in the negative correlation with the FGC Dollar Indicator may suggest changing dynamics in the Forex market, though it remains significantly negative.
• Neutral Market Outlook: The continued ‘Neutral’ state indicates a market that is not heavily skewed towards bullish or bearish sentiment. As mentioned in the report yesterday, this posture seems logical ahead of the Core PCE Price Index, the preferred inflation measure of the Feds, tomorrow.
• Trading Strategy Considerations:
  • The support and resistance levels suggest 1.0951 (Mid-Level) as a key area to watch for potential shifts in market direction.
  • The predictive trading range probabilities indicate a high likelihood (73.15%) of the pair moving below 1.0979, potentially acting as a resistance in the short term.
  • The lower probability (13.02%) of dropping below 1.0899 suggests that this level may function as a strong support.

Risk Disclosure:Trading financial instruments such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies (Forex), cryptocurrency (cryptocurrencies), Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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Risk Disclosure: Trading financial instruments such as but not limited to off-exchange foreign currencies, cryptocurrency (cryptocurrencies), Futures, ETFs, Equities and Indexes contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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