Will growth stocks rebound in 2023?
Growth stocks are a powerful element within most portfolios over the mid and long term given performance dominance. Following the strong double-digit returns in 2023, many investors have high hurdles for fundamentals that growth companies will need to deliver.
One of the big surprises of 2023 was the resurgence of US growth stocks. The tech-heavy S&P 500 Growth Index outpaced its counterpart Value Index by 7.82 percentage points last year, including dividends, after trailing it badly in 2022.
Nevertheless, growth stocks outperformed value stocks in 2023, and that trend has continued so far in 2024 as investors anticipate a Federal Reserve pivot to rate cuts.
The benchmark S&P 500 index inched lower Friday, the last trading day of 2023, but ended the year with a 24.2% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 13% this year, and the Nasdaq soared 43%, driven by gains in big technology companies, including Nvidia, Amazon and Microsoft.
The final quarterly and annual numbers for 2023 were exceptionally good. They translate into substantial annual gains for millions of investors who hold stocks and bonds indirectly, through mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and trusts, often in workplace retirement accounts.
Generally, growth stocks are more expensive, as investors value them based on above-average past and, more so, future growth. However, they're also riskier, particularly because if a growth stock doesn't meet lofty expectations, the share price often drops considerably.
Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.
| S.No. | Name | CMP Rs. |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Guj. Themis Bio. | 384.75 |
| 2. | Refex Industries | 141.30 |
| 3. | Tanla Platforms | 941.15 |
| 4. | M K Exim India | 76.69 |
| Stock | 2024 return through March 31 |
|---|---|
| MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) | 169.9% |
| SoundHound AI Inc. (SOUN) | 177.8% |
| Vera Therapeutics Inc. (VERA) | 180.4% |
| Avidity Biosciences Inc. (RNA) | 182% |
| Company | 3-Year Sales Growth CAGR | Industry |
|---|---|---|
| Block (NYSE:SQ) | 16% | Digital payments |
| Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) | 10% | E-commerce |
| Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) | 39% | Semiconductors |
| Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) | 7% | Streaming entertainment |
Should I pull my money out of the stock market?
It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.
There are no set ages to get into or to get out of the stock market. While older clients may want to reduce their investing risk as they age, this doesn't necessarily mean they should be totally out of the stock market.
I analyze market events and their influence on investment strategies. The success of market forecasting is always a mixed bag, however 2023 stands out as a particularly terrible year for forecasts. At the beginning of the year the consensus view was a recession would arrive in the third or fourth quarter.
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Money market funds.
- Short-term certificates of deposit.
- Series I savings bonds.
- Treasury bills, notes, bonds and TIPS.
- Corporate bonds.
- Dividend-paying stocks.
- Preferred stocks.
Many retirement planners suggest the typical 401(k) portfolio generates an average annual return of 5% to 8% based on market conditions. But your 401(k) return depends on different factors like your contributions, investment selection and fees. Sometimes broader trends can overwhelm these factors.
Stock market performance in 2023 was a reflection of the relatively strong U.S. economy. The S&P 500 index increased 24.31 percent, more than twice the long-run average return on U.S. large-cap stocks. China's stock returns reflect significantly lower economic growth in 2022 and 2023 relative to pre-COVID levels.
Though there is no ideal time for holding stock, you should stay invested for at least 1-1.5 years. If you see the stock price of your share booming, you will have the question of how long do you have to hold stock? Remember, if it is zooming today, what will be its price after ten years?
As such, while growth companies may not have impressive earnings at present, their potential gains over future years and even decades are deemed worthy of investment today by growth investors, who are willing to place high premiums on those future capital gains.
- Volatility: Growth stocks can be more volatile than other types of investments, leading to greater short-term fluctuations.
- No dividend income: Investors seeking regular income through dividends may find growth stocks unsuitable.
- Risk: High valuations may not always materialise, leading to potential losses.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
What is the stock market outlook for the rest of 2024?
As a whole, analysts are optimistic about the outlook for stock prices in 2024. The consensus analyst price target for the S&P 500 is 5,090, suggesting roughly 8.5% upside from current levels.
Bond outlooks improve, but stocks' prospects drop on the heels of 2023′s rally. Better things lie ahead for bonds, but the prospects for stocks, especially U.S. equities, are less rosy.
| S.No. | Name | ROCE % |
|---|---|---|
| 2. | Insolation Ener | 19.64 |
| 3. | SG Mart | 14.52 |
| 4. | Waaree Renewab. | 83.80 |
| 5. | Veritas (India) | 4.59 |
According to his math, since 1949 S&P 500 investments have doubled ten times, or an average of about seven years each time. In some cases, like 1952 to 1955 or 1995 to 1998, the value of the investment doubled in only three years.
1 At 10%, you could double your initial investment every seven years (72 divided by 10). In a less-risky investment such as bonds, which have averaged a return of about 5% to 6% over the same period, you could expect to double your money in about 12 years (72 divided by 6).
